Sports betting strategies and systems

Hedge betting involves placing a bet against a bet you have already placed to either minimize a potential loss or lock in a guaranteed profit, regardless of the result. Hedging happens when bettors either lose confidence in their original bet, or see an opportunity to secure a guaranteed return from a game or event by backing against their original bet. This can take place either mid-season for futures markets, or mid-game during live in-game betting.

While hedging and arbitrage both involve betting both sides of a matchup, hedging uses odds fluctuations to add a second bet to an already-placed bet, whereas arbitrage utilizes discrepancies in the odds between different sportsbooks to enable opposing bets to be placed at the same time.

While arbitrage opportunities can be extremely hard to find, hedging opportunities are commonplace thanks to the constant fluctuation of odds in live in-game betting markets. You can learn more in our guide to hedge betting.

Sports odds can move up and down depending on a range of factors, but the odds you get when you place your bet stay the same. Sometimes, after you have placed a bet on the point spread for a game, the odds move and give you the opportunity to bet again to win at least one of the two wagers. Put simply, middling is a strategy where a bettor backs both sides of the same bet, but at different point spreads, to open up the chance of hitting the "middle" and winning both while risking relatively little in return.

For example, if you have backed the Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5 points, and the line moves to -4.5, you then have the opportunity to back the opposing Denver Broncos at +4.5. In that situation, you know that one of your bets will win, regardless of the scoreline.

If you placed $10 bets on both at odds of -110, you would be in line to potentially win both bets if you hit the "middle" and the game finishes with a 4-point Chiefs win. For any other points differential, you would take only a minor loss:

In this example you're staking $20, but only risking $0.91 of it for the chance to potentially win $18.18.

The key to success in middling depends on your ability to identify the games that will see the point spreads move, as favored teams gain steam with sportsbooks in the lead-up to games. Most sportsbooks set their odds at -110 for point spread markets, meaning that if you can hit one "middle" per 21 middling attempts, you will break even. If you hit two or more per 21 attempts, you're in profit.

The vig in sports betting refers to the vigorish, which is how a sportsbook guarantees profit from offering sports betting odds. It is often known as the “juice” or “margin” in sports betting circles.

Put simply, the vig is the cut that the sportsbook takes from every losing bet. The cut is reflected in the odds offered as bettors place their wagers, and includes a percentage that automatically goes to the house in the event of a losing bet. Different sportsbooks set the vig at different levels based on a variety of factors, including the bet type, the popularity of the market, and the sportsbook’s experience in dealing with a particular market.

If you want to know the real odds on an event, first you have to remove the vig. For a coin toss, the odds should be -100 each for heads and tails, but a sportsbook would likely offer odds between -110 and -120, depending on how large a vig they wanted to include. Point spreads turn games into coin-flips, so the difference between +100 and the odds offered represents the vig. It also applies to other markets where the sportsbook sets a stats mark, such as total or over/under bets.

It’s also worth remembering that the vig doesn’t have to be the same for both teams in the same game. If one team is receiving significant betting interest, a sportsbook may increase the vig to reduce its liabilities. Alternatively, a sportsbook may reduce the vig in order to attract betting interest on a specific market or outcome.

For more information on how the juice/vig works, read our guide.